India’s Path to WTC Final – What Happens If Melbourne Test Ends in Draw or Loss?

Melbourne - As India and Australia lock horns in the fourth Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), the stakes couldn’t be higher for Team India. With the World Test Championship (WTC) final in sight, India must win the Melbourne Test to strengthen its chances of qualification. Currently tied 1-1 in the series and sitting third on the WTC standings, a loss or draw in Melbourne could complicate India’s path to the final.

Here’s a detailed breakdown of the scenarios that determine India’s qualification chances.

What Happens If India Loses in Melbourne?

A loss at MCG would put India at 1-2 in the series, leaving only the final Test in Sydney to play. India’s percentage of points (PCT) would drop from 55.88 to 52.78, further diminishing their WTC ranking.Australia, with a win, would see their PCT rise to 61.45, solidifying their position in the standings.

Can India Still Qualify for the WTC Final After Losing in Melbourne?

Despite a loss in Melbourne, India would retain the third spot in the WTC standings but would rely on other results to keep their hopes alive.

To qualify:

India must win the final Test in Sydney and hope for favorable outcomes in matches involving other teams, especially Australia and Sri Lanka.

Scenario Breakdown for India’s Qualification

If India loses at MCG but wins in Sydney (Series tied 2-2):

India’s PCT would be 55.26.

Australia would need to avoid a series loss to Sri Lanka to stay ahead.

If India loses at MCG and draws in Sydney (Series 1-2):

India’s PCT would drop significantly, strengthening Australia’s position.

If India draws both MCG and Sydney Tests (Series 1-1):

India’s PCT would settle at 53.50.

Australia would need at least one win against Sri Lanka to eliminate India from contention.

If India draws MCG but wins in Sydney (Series 2-1 to Australia):

India’s PCT would rise to 57.01, putting pressure on Australia to win their series against Sri Lanka 2-0.

Current Standings and Implications

India’s position in the WTC standings makes every result critical. A win in Melbourne would give India control over their destiny, while a loss or draw shifts the advantage to Australia and makes external factors pivotal for India’s qualification.